Canada's Federal Election 2015: The Official Thread

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,778
454
83



The following are ThreeHundredEight.com's projections for the federal election tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015. These numbers were last updated on January 25, 2015, and reflect the best estimates as of January 13, 2015, the last day of polls included in the model. You can click on all of the charts below to magnify them.

Click here to read an explanation of the new model, how it performed in 2011, and what to keep in mind when looking at these numbers.

Click here to read the detailed analyses from the main site concerning the federal election and new polls.

The vote and seat projections in the central columns reflect the best estimates based on the available polling data. The low and high projections are based on the over-estimation or under-estimation of support the polls are likely to make, while the minimum and maximum projections are designed to include 95% of potential outcomes.

The chart below shows how each party is classified in the model for the determination of the high and low ranges, and the probability that the result will fall within any of the projection ranges.

Based on these probabilities, there is a 58% chance that the outcome of the election for the Conservatives will fall between the best estimate (or average) projection and the high projection. There is an 70% chance that it will fall between the average and maximum projection, and so on. There is a 5% chance that the outcome will fall outside of the minimum and maximum ranges.

A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probabilities are calculated can be found here.

The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections. The probabilities are based on how polls have differed from election results in the past.

The follow chart breaks the projection down by region.

The following chart lists the national polls currently included in the projection model that make up at least 99% of the weighted average, as well as the weight each poll carries. It also lists the media outlet that either commissioned or first reported the poll.

By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.


The following is a list of the current projections for all 338 of Canada's ridings. These are the best estimates of likely outcomes if an election were held on the last day of polling. The high and low results are the estimates of likely floors and ceilings, based on the high and low vote projection ranges. The probabilities listed beside each riding is the likelihood that, if an election were held on the last day of polling, the winning party identified by the model would actually win. It does not assign any probability to a particular trailing party winning the riding - if a projection gives the leading party a 75% chance of winning, there is a 25% chance that any of the other parties could win (though, in practice, most ridings are only contests between two parties).

These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.

(From top to bottom, the first image contains projections for ridings in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan A to M, the second image contains projections for Saskatchewan N to Z, Manitoba, and Ontario A to M, the third image contains projections for Ontario M to Z and Quebec A to C, and the fourth image contains projections for Quebec C to Z, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the three territories.)

The chart below shows the evolution of the seat and vote projections and ranges since the start of the campaign.

 

CDNBear

Custom Troll
Sep 24, 2006
43,839
207
63
Ontario
Kind of reminds me of that one kid that thinks he's getting the entire Sear's catalogue toy section for Christmas.
 

lone wolf

Grossly Underrated
Nov 25, 2006
32,493
210
63
In the bush near Sudbury
Con minority might be alright if Harper doesn't play the same non-government game he did in his last minorities. He just doesn't play well when he doesn't own the ball
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,778
454
83
Since Harper is trying to use terrorism as an opportunity for his election platform....

Harper’s Chicken Little act is getting tired. Time and time again we’ve been lied to about the war on terror, and there is no reason to suspect that this time we are being told the truth.

Hey Harper - Want to stop promoting terrorism? Stop calling them 'jihadists'

Of course, we all know he's more about getting attention than actually resolving the issue.
 

Locutus

Adorable Deplorable
Jun 18, 2007
32,230
45
48
65
dem mad liberals. :lol:

Dougald Lamont is a writer and strategic communications consultant in Winnipeg. He has worked on many political campaigns and in 2013 ran unsuccessfully for leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.

'nuff said.
 

WLDB

Senate Member
Jun 24, 2011
6,182
0
36
Ottawa
Meh, I wouldnt mind a minority government. No matter which party holds it the others will be able to stop them from going too far off the rails.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,778
454
83
Like I said...

What an enlightening post.


Time for truth bombs:

What about Canada?

In 2003, Stephen Harper believed all the lies about Iraq, and in a speech plagiarized from Australian Prime Minister John Howard, urged Canada to join the U.S.

Rather than hear about Canada’s role in the torture of prisoners in Afghanistan, the Harper government prorogued parliament.

In Canada, we are being lied to about our role in fighting ISIS in Iraq. We were told it would be limited to air strikes from CF-18s. Now shots are being fired on the ground, but we’re being told that that’s not what “combat” means.
 

skookumchuck

Council Member
Jan 19, 2012
2,467
0
36
Van Isle
What an enlightening post.


Time for truth bombs:

What about Canada?

In 2003, Stephen Harper believed all the lies about Iraq, and in a speech plagiarized from Australian Prime Minister John Howard, urged Canada to join the U.S.

Rather than hear about Canada’s role in the torture of prisoners in Afghanistan, the Harper government prorogued parliament.

In Canada, we are being lied to about our role in fighting ISIS in Iraq. We were told it would be limited to air strikes from CF-18s. Now shots are being fired on the ground, but we’re being told that that’s not what “combat” means.

Stand up for the plain truth from cowards and pacifists, win a new sword made from newsprint, that will scare the bad guys.