divide and conquer the summer toques. :lol:
OTTAWA - A week that started poorly for Thomas Mulcair's NDP finished with a bit of promise and no one should be happier about that than Stephen Harper's Conservatives.
That's because the surest route for Harper to win his fourth consecutive election - a feat matched in our history only by two guys named Laurier and Macdonald - is to make sure the 60% of Canadians who won't vote Conservative under any circumstance remain split on whether the NDP or Justin Trudeau's Liberals have the best chance of ending Harper's residency at 24 Sussex.
The problem for the Tories? Harper-haters have increasingly come to see Trudeau as their best option.
Harper stays in office if more - though not too many more - think Mulcair is the best anti-Harper.
But the week began for the Mulcair team with what can only be described as humiliating third-place finishes in Monday's two byelections. No one thought the NDP might win either of them - Yellowhead in Alberta or Whitby-Oshawa east of Toronto - but in the 2011 general election, the NDP finished second in both. And for a party that's trying to build the case it's the one true hope for all the country's Harper-haters, stronger second-place finishes are the minimum requirement.
Instead, they cratered while the Liberals moved strongly into second place. In Whitby-Oshawa, which the late finance minister Jim Flaherty had held after he won it in 2006 by beating a Liberal incumbent, the NDP vote share fell from a respectable 22% in 2011 to 8% while the Liberal vote share shot from 14% to nearly 41%.
In Yellowhead, the NDP vote share was 10% - better than it was in a suburban Toronto riding!
So in the 15 byelections since Mulcair became leader, the NDP vote share fell in all but two and he lost a seat. Meanwhile, in the 11 byelections since Trudeau became leader, Liberal vote share is up in all of them and the Liberals stole two seats, one each from the NDP and the Conservatives.
Not good for the NDP. Not good for the Conservatives.
Now, the Tories will tell you, a win is a win is a win. And their byelection record since Harper became prime minister in 2006 is a very strong one: In 31 byelections, the Conservatives lost only the one seat but stole five from rivals and held nine other times as the incumbent.
But there will be many Conservative incumbents at risk, particularly in Ontario, in the general election next year if the anti-Harper vote coalesces around either Trudeau or Mulcair. And right now, anti-Harper sentiment is benefitting Trudeau much more than Mulcair.
Except in Quebec.
And that's where good news for the NDP came towards the end of the week.
First, on Wednesday, Maria Mourani, an MP who had been elected under the Bloc Quebecois banner in 2011 only to be kicked out last year for opposing the Parti Quebecois' hideous "Charter of Values," said she'll try to get re-elected as a New Democrat in her Montreal riding.
Reporters asked: Why not run for Trudeau? "He's not a leader," she sniffed.
The next day, pollster CROP said 34% of Quebecers would vote NDP versus 32% for the Liberals.
Liberal support, though, was hugely concentrated among anglophones. Among francophones, who decide the vast majority of riding races, the NDP was up 39% compared to 27% for the Liberals.
Now, Mourani's re-election is no gimme. And a poll a year ahead of the general election comes with the obligatory grain of salt.
Nonetheless, those are the signs of life for the NDP that Mulcair and Harper both need now to succeed in 2015.
Sun News : Harper needs more of his 'haters' to like Mulcair
OTTAWA - A week that started poorly for Thomas Mulcair's NDP finished with a bit of promise and no one should be happier about that than Stephen Harper's Conservatives.
That's because the surest route for Harper to win his fourth consecutive election - a feat matched in our history only by two guys named Laurier and Macdonald - is to make sure the 60% of Canadians who won't vote Conservative under any circumstance remain split on whether the NDP or Justin Trudeau's Liberals have the best chance of ending Harper's residency at 24 Sussex.
The problem for the Tories? Harper-haters have increasingly come to see Trudeau as their best option.
Harper stays in office if more - though not too many more - think Mulcair is the best anti-Harper.
But the week began for the Mulcair team with what can only be described as humiliating third-place finishes in Monday's two byelections. No one thought the NDP might win either of them - Yellowhead in Alberta or Whitby-Oshawa east of Toronto - but in the 2011 general election, the NDP finished second in both. And for a party that's trying to build the case it's the one true hope for all the country's Harper-haters, stronger second-place finishes are the minimum requirement.
Instead, they cratered while the Liberals moved strongly into second place. In Whitby-Oshawa, which the late finance minister Jim Flaherty had held after he won it in 2006 by beating a Liberal incumbent, the NDP vote share fell from a respectable 22% in 2011 to 8% while the Liberal vote share shot from 14% to nearly 41%.
In Yellowhead, the NDP vote share was 10% - better than it was in a suburban Toronto riding!
So in the 15 byelections since Mulcair became leader, the NDP vote share fell in all but two and he lost a seat. Meanwhile, in the 11 byelections since Trudeau became leader, Liberal vote share is up in all of them and the Liberals stole two seats, one each from the NDP and the Conservatives.
Not good for the NDP. Not good for the Conservatives.
Now, the Tories will tell you, a win is a win is a win. And their byelection record since Harper became prime minister in 2006 is a very strong one: In 31 byelections, the Conservatives lost only the one seat but stole five from rivals and held nine other times as the incumbent.
But there will be many Conservative incumbents at risk, particularly in Ontario, in the general election next year if the anti-Harper vote coalesces around either Trudeau or Mulcair. And right now, anti-Harper sentiment is benefitting Trudeau much more than Mulcair.
Except in Quebec.
And that's where good news for the NDP came towards the end of the week.
First, on Wednesday, Maria Mourani, an MP who had been elected under the Bloc Quebecois banner in 2011 only to be kicked out last year for opposing the Parti Quebecois' hideous "Charter of Values," said she'll try to get re-elected as a New Democrat in her Montreal riding.
Reporters asked: Why not run for Trudeau? "He's not a leader," she sniffed.
The next day, pollster CROP said 34% of Quebecers would vote NDP versus 32% for the Liberals.
Liberal support, though, was hugely concentrated among anglophones. Among francophones, who decide the vast majority of riding races, the NDP was up 39% compared to 27% for the Liberals.
Now, Mourani's re-election is no gimme. And a poll a year ahead of the general election comes with the obligatory grain of salt.
Nonetheless, those are the signs of life for the NDP that Mulcair and Harper both need now to succeed in 2015.
Sun News : Harper needs more of his 'haters' to like Mulcair
