Financial Post: Alberta seen growing at slowest pace in 5 years

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,778
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Alberta seen growing at slowest pace in 5 years after oil prices plunge

Alberta, which derives a quarter of its economy from the oil sands and other energy resources, is poised to grow at the slowest pace in five years as crude prices slump, ATB Financial’s Todd Hirsch said.


The western Canadian province’s economy will expand by 2.5% to 3% in 2015, about half a percentage point less than this year, the bank’s chief economist said at an event in Calgary Thursday. The slowdown follows annual average growth of 4.6% in the past four years.


The West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil benchmarks extended losses to four-year lows Thursday after OPEC signaled it remains unwilling to reduce output to ease a supply glut. The decline of more than 30% from June highs for those crudes means that, while major oil-sands producers will probably sustain the development of projects, smaller ones may scale back investment, Hirsch said.


WTI, which closed at $74.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday, will likely trade between $70 and $75 a barrel for the rest of the year and rebound to $85 to $90 next year, Hirsch said. About a quarter of oil-sands projects are at risk as prices fall, the International Energy Agency said Oct. 14.


Alberta seen growing at slowest pace in 5 years after oil prices plunge | Financial Post
 

grainfedpraiboy

Electoral Member
Mar 15, 2009
715
1
18
Alberta The Last Best West
Thank Christ. If things don't start slowing down I'm going to lose my mind.

I can't find labour. You can't get service anywhere. Everything and everyone has been going flat out for a decade now.

We need a breather.
 

MHz

Time Out
Mar 16, 2007
41,030
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Red Deer AB
It's $1.00/ltr, a month ago when it was warmer the price was $1.20/lt and with the lower prices it still costs you more to do the same driving because of warm ups and everybody is driving slower. If it was summer so many people would be driving the stations would be empty as the refineries couldn't keep up. There is also the fact that oil has a shelf life and if they over bought they have to get rid of it by their years end of it takes away from their profits.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,778
454
83
Oil price set to fall further in 2015, IEA predicts

Alberta's economy predicted to slow in response to lower oil prices

The rout in world oil prices isn’t over according to the International Energy Agency, which today predicted oil prices would fall further in 2015.

Brent crude slipped below $80 US a barrel earlier this week and West Texas Intermediate below $75, continuing the sharp decline in oil prices begun in mid-September.

Calling it a “new chapter” in oil market history, the energy agency said weak demand, a strong U.S. dollar and booming U.S. oil production are all working against higher prices for oil.

"While there has been some speculation that the high cost of unconventional oil production might set a new equilibrium for Brent prices in the $80 US to $90 US range, supply/demand balances suggest that the price rout has yet to run its course," the IEA said in its monthly report.

"Our supply and demand forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruption, downward price pressures could build further in the first half of 2015."

After dropping by more than $3 yesterday, Brent crude recovered on Friday and closed up $2.19 a barrel to $79.68 US. Nonetheless its price has dropped 30 per cent since the beginning of the year.

WTI, the contract traded in North America, was up $1.74 cents to $75.95 US a barrel. It is down 23 per cent in the year to date.

Oil bounced upward on Friday on speculation that OPEC could relent and cut back on its production because of falling prices.
that would happen.

"Pressure on OPEC to reduce production is building, but at the time of writing there appeared to be no clear consensus on a formal supply cut ahead of its meeting in Vienna later this month," it said in its report.

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/business/oil-price-set-to-fall-further-in-2015-iea-predicts-1.2835425
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
Resources are a cyclical sector. Western Canada's oilpatch has been down this road many, many times.

... But thanks for the memo all the same, I look forward to your next update detailing that water is wet
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
109,356
11,423
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Low Earth Orbit
Candyfloss, what is ON's growth going to be?

A hit to the Canadian oil industry is a big hit to ON oil industry suppliers.

$63B of ON GDP directly comes from Oil Sands. $57B from the natural gas industry. $77Billion in taxable wages paid out to ON workers from Oil Sands and fracked NG alone.

Too bad conventional oil wasn't included so may as well toss another $50Billion on.

 

Sal

Hall of Fame Member
Sep 29, 2007
17,135
33
48
Thank Christ. If things don't start slowing down I'm going to lose my mind.

I can't find labour. You can't get service anywhere. Everything and everyone has been going flat out for a decade now.

We need a breather.
that's what I'm hearing and it's contributing to lazy work ethics when you can find staff...and if any type of correction comes their way they say screw ya, walk right out the door and down the street and into another job
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
Clearly the cyclical nature of the Albertan oil market has not reached the ear of the Albertan government.

Prentice sounds wary note about oil prices and Alberta’s economy

The Albertan government?

You should demand a refund on the money you spent on post secondary

When they were booming, didn't they bank any money for the tough times? Stupid bastards!:)

They generally don't hold lots of cash in bank accounts like you or I might... They have used that cash to grow and pay their shareholders.