Ontario NDP drops in EKOS Poll


mentalfloss
#1
Ontario NDP drops in EKOS Poll

Hot off the wires following the release of the Ontario budget yesterday is a poll by EKOS Research that might give Andrea Horwath pause as she considers whether or not to send Ontarians to the polls this spring.

The poll by EKOS Research for iPolitics gives the Liberals the lead with 34.7% support, up 2.4 points from EKOS's previous poll of March 27-April 3. The Progressive Conservatives were also up, gaining 4.2 points to reach 31.6%.

The New Democrats, however, fell 6.8 points to 22.2%.

The Greens were up 1.1 points to 9.4%, while 2% of respondents said they would vote for another party. Of the entire sample, 18.9% were undecided.

Only the drop in support of the NDP appears to be statistically significant, though it also looks a lot like a reset. EKOS's previous poll had the New Democrats at 29%, well above the 22% to 23% recorded in subsequent polls by Forum, Nanos, and Innovative. It does differ, however, from the 27% recorded in the most recent Ipsos Reid poll, but even Ipsos was registering a slip in support for the NDP from their own previous poll.

For the Liberals and PCs, the picture remains muddy. Of the five surveys now conducted since April 7, the PCs have recorded (in order of field dates) 38%, 36%, 30%, 37%, and 32%. The Liberals have recorded 31%, 36%, 39%, 32%, and 35%. Overall, the Liberals and PCs seem to be somewhere in the 30s. That is about as much as can be said with certainty. The aggregate now gives the Liberals 34% to 33% for the Tories.

Of significance, however, may be the Tories' lead among the oldest voters. Of Ontarians aged 65 or older, the PCs held a 40% to 36% edge over the Liberals. Among the next oldest tranche of respondents between the ages of 45 and 64, the Liberals and PCs were almost tied (33% to 32%, respectively). This suggests the Tories may have a turnout advantage (which Ipsos Reid also recorded in their poll).

ThreeHundredEight.com (external - login to view)


EDIT: Libs called the election.
Last edited by mentalfloss; May 2nd, 2014 at 01:11 PM..
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#2
When poll numbers - like heart rates - bounce all over the page, you know something's wrong and there's no easy fix
 
Colpy
Conservative
+1
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post

Ontario NDP drops in EKOS Poll

Hot off the wires following the release of the Ontario budget yesterday is a poll by EKOS Research that might give Andrea Horwath pause as she considers whether or not to send Ontarians to the polls this spring.

The poll by EKOS Research for iPolitics gives the Liberals the lead with 34.7% support, up 2.4 points from EKOS's previous poll of March 27-April 3. The Progressive Conservatives were also up, gaining 4.2 points to reach 31.6%.

The New Democrats, however, fell 6.8 points to 22.2%.

The Greens were up 1.1 points to 9.4%, while 2% of respondents said they would vote for another party. Of the entire sample, 18.9% were undecided.

Only the drop in support of the NDP appears to be statistically significant, though it also looks a lot like a reset. EKOS's previous poll had the New Democrats at 29%, well above the 22% to 23% recorded in subsequent polls by Forum, Nanos, and Innovative. It does differ, however, from the 27% recorded in the most recent Ipsos Reid poll, but even Ipsos was registering a slip in support for the NDP from their own previous poll.

For the Liberals and PCs, the picture remains muddy. Of the five surveys now conducted since April 7, the PCs have recorded (in order of field dates) 38%, 36%, 30%, 37%, and 32%. The Liberals have recorded 31%, 36%, 39%, 32%, and 35%. Overall, the Liberals and PCs seem to be somewhere in the 30s. That is about as much as can be said with certainty. The aggregate now gives the Liberals 34% to 33% for the Tories.

Of significance, however, may be the Tories' lead among the oldest voters. Of Ontarians aged 65 or older, the PCs held a 40% to 36% edge over the Liberals. Among the next oldest tranche of respondents between the ages of 45 and 64, the Liberals and PCs were almost tied (33% to 32%, respectively). This suggests the Tories may have a turnout advantage (which Ipsos Reid also recorded in their poll).

ThreeHundredEight.com (external - login to view)


EDIT: Libs called the election.

Anyone that even considers voting Liberal in the Ontario election needs their head read.
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#4
A Liberal in Toronto means a Conservative in Ottawa and vice versa. Careful what you wish for....
 
BornRuff
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by ColpyView Post

Anyone that even considers voting Liberal in the Ontario election needs their head read.

Are the other parties really offering a viable alternative?
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
-1
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Are the other parties really offering a viable alternative?

Yes.
 
BornRuff
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Yes.

I really don't think that Tim Hudak is all that electable, and the NDP really are not on the map.
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
+2 / -1
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

I really don't think that Tim Hudak is all that electable, and the NDP really are not on the map.

Even if your not a fan of Hudak, and I'm not, this is a case of hold your nose.

To reward this government with another term would be foolhardy. They are crooks, liars and cheats and worse they are arrogant.

If this aint working, and it aint, it's time to try something else.
 
taxslave
No Party Affiliation
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Are the other parties really offering a viable alternative?

The dippers are not. COns perhaps.
 
BornRuff
-1
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Even if your not a fan of Hudak, and I'm not, this is a case of hold your nose.

To reward this government with another term would be foolhardy. They are crooks, liars and cheats and worse they are arrogant.

If this aint working, and it aint, it's time to try something else.

With all of the crap that has happened under the Liberals, I still trust them more than the Conservatives as of now.

What policy ideas have the conservatives really put forward over the years? The only part of their "million jobs" plan that was clearly spelled out was the Right to Work type changes to the laws that they eventually backtracked from.

Wynne is still by far the best leader of the three, so I'll stick with her until someone else can actually make me feel comfortable voting for them.
 
gerryh
+1
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Wynne is still by far the best leader of the three, so I'll stick with her until someone else can actually make me feel comfortable voting for them.


Unless Wynne is running in your riding, you won't be voting for her.
 
BornRuff
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by gerryhView Post

Unless Wynne is running in your riding, you won't be voting for her.

Lol, can that tired crap.

Despite the fact that I actually do live in her riding and I never said anything about directly voting for her, we all know that if you vote for a party in your riding it is also going to help their respective leader become Premier.
 
Count_Lothian
-1
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Even if your not a fan of Hudak, and I'm not, this is a case of hold your nose.

To reward this government with another term would be foolhardy. They are crooks, liars and cheats and worse they are arrogant.

If this aint working, and it aint, it's time to try something else.

But Hudak and his people this time out the gate are incredibly stupid.
Last time out he got lost in foreign worker arguments in Toronto.
The only thing Hudak did was scream about the scandals.
There is absolutely no substance to this man or his people.

Again my "C" in conservative is nothing more than a logo.

You want to teach people a lesson do you, well how about my party, the Conservative one.

I've voted in the past for Liberal governments and have suffered for it in private....lol I'm serious.

Is this NDP my only choice?
Flush the other two down the drain in hopes of a better crew next time.

I mean really, I'm open to suggestions .
 
gerryh
+1
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Lol, can that tired crap.

Despite the fact that I actually do live in her riding and I never said anything about directly voting for her, we all know that if you vote for a party in your riding it is also going to help their respective leader become Premier.


So you vote for a party rather than the person that can best represent you in the legislature.
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
+1
#15
Exactly why I woted in an advance poll in 1999. I was moving out of Harris' riding (thanks to his "war on poverty") and I wanted to vote directly against the SOB
 
BornRuff
+1
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by gerryhView Post

So you vote for a party rather than the person that can best represent you in the legislature.

Who will be your local MPP is obviously part of the consideration, but it is not crazy to also consider what party and their leader you want to put in charge of the whole government.
 
Count_Lothian
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by gerryhView Post

So you vote for a party rather than the person that can best represent you in the legislature.

It shows you think about the vote you use gerryh.
I too sometimes am guilty of voting for a party rather than a person.
Especially when I know the person in my riding I should vote for works harder than the others.

This thing we call a ballot box is a treasure not to be slighted.

I see where you are coming from gerryh.
 
BornRuff
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Count_LothianView Post

It shows you think about the vote you use gerryh.
I too sometimes am guilty of voting for a party rather than a person.
Especially when I know the person in my riding I should vote for works harder than the others.

This thing we call a ballot box is a treasure not to be slighted.

I see where you are coming from gerryh.

You don't think it is important to consider what party you are supporting too?

Your local MPP might be able to provide a little bit of help with a few local issues or a specific problem that you have, but overall the real power goes to the party that wins.

It is nice if a local candidate works hard and is a nice guy, but if voting for him supports and political party that I do not agree with and do not want to see in power, I am going to put more weight on the latter.
 
Count_Lothian
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

You don't think it is important to consider what party you are supporting too?

I did not say anything to deserve this question.

Quote:

Your local MPP might be able to provide a little bit of help with a few local issues or a specific problem that you have, but overall the real power goes to the party that wins.

It depends on one's perspective and integrity.
Some vote with a conscious and not solely on political bents.
Quote:

It is nice if a local candidate works hard and is a nice guy, but if voting for him supports and political party that I do not agree with and do not want to see in power, I am going to put more weight on the latter.

Well that certainly is your right and most think like you.
I just find gerryh's disposition on this issue an honest and decent one.
 
IdRatherBeSkiing
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

With all of the crap that has happened under the Liberals, I still trust them more than the Conservatives as of now.

What policy ideas have the conservatives really put forward over the years? The only part of their "million jobs" plan that was clearly spelled out was the Right to Work type changes to the laws that they eventually backtracked from.

Wynne is still by far the best leader of the three, so I'll stick with her until someone else can actually make me feel comfortable voting for them.

I'm shocked I tell you. I would never have expected this position from you. Next thing you will tell me is you support Justine at the federal level.

As for policy ideas, now that the campaign is under way we will hear them. It is not the job of the official opposition to be putting out policy ideas -- just criticizing the ones of the government.

As for leadership, it is a dismal lot but IMHO she is a solid #3 in the leadership race (and this says a lot about my personal opinion of her leadership to be put behind Hudak and Howarth) (Note: I reserve the right to re-evaluate later as I am not currently aware of the leaders of the Green Party or the Libertarians or any of the other parties running.)

Quote: Originally Posted by gerryhView Post

So you vote for a party rather than the person that can best represent you in the legislature.

I think most people do. I certainly factor this in. I do look at local candidates and have changed my vote if one of the candidates is unsatisfactory even if it is for the party of my choosing. But I think I am in the minority. If it was truly about the candidate, why is the party on the ballot beside the name?
 
BornRuff
+1
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Count_LothianView Post

I did not say anything to deserve this question.

Is asking you a question some sort of burden or insult?

You said you agreed with Gerryh, who was talking to me about voting for local MPPs rather than the party in a very binary, one or the other, way.

Quote: Originally Posted by Count_LothianView Post

It depends on one's perspective and integrity.
Some vote with a conscious and not solely on political bents.
Well that certainly is your right and most think like you.
I just find gerryh's disposition on this issue an honest and decent one.

Lol, those sound like fighting words to me.

Considering the party that will gain power certainly doesn't mean I don't vote with a conscience(I assume that is the word you were going for), or that I am some partisan hack.

The party that forms a government is going to have the keys to the province. They will control the budget, so they control how much I pay in taxes and what that money is spent on. They craft laws that I will have to live under.

So yeah, considering the party affiliation of the person you are voting for is pretty damn important.
 
pgs
Free Thinker
+2
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Is asking you a question some sort of burden or insult?

You said you agreed with Gerryh, who was talking to me about voting for local MPPs rather than the party in a very binary, one or the other, way.



Lol, those sound like fighting words to me.

Considering the party that will gain power certainly doesn't mean I don't vote with a conscience(I assume that is the word you were going for), or that I am some partisan hack.

The party that forms a government is going to have the keys to the province. They will control the budget, so they control how much I pay in taxes and what that money is spent on. They craft laws that I will have to live under.

So yeah, considering the party affiliation of the person you are voting for is pretty damn important.

Yet you think signing off on 2 billion dollar gas plant cancellations is prudent use of those tax dollars you pay .
 
Walter
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by lone wolfView Post

Exactly why I woted in an advance poll in 1999. I was moving out of Harris' riding (thanks to his "war on poverty") and I wanted to vote directly against the SOB

Best ON premier in my lifetime.
 
BornRuff
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by pgsView Post

Yet you think signing off on 2 billion dollar gas plant cancellations is prudent use of those tax dollars you pay .

Lol, now it is 2 billion?

It is exactly this kind of stuff that makes it hard for people to take these complaints seriously.

If you are going to lie while complaining about another party's lies, it doesn't really make either side look great.

Quote: Originally Posted by WalterView Post

Best ON premier in my lifetime.

IMO, downloading billions of dollars in costs to municipalities without giving them the resources to pay for them, breaking up power generation into 5 bigger bureaucratic nightmares, filling in a subway already under construction, selling off the 407, etc etc etc, makes him one of the worst. We are going to live with his mistakes for the rest of our lives.
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Is asking you a question some sort of burden or insult?

Please excuse as I LMAO!

There are many times you have to choose the guy/gal who's best for you - even if the colours he/she wears clash with reality
 
BornRuff
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by lone wolfView Post

Please excuse as I LMAO!

There are many times you have to choose the guy/gal who's best for you - even if the colours he/she wears clash with reality

What?
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#27
Can I tip-toe around the answer too?
 
BornRuff
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by lone wolfView Post

Can I tip-toe around the answer too?

Well if you want an answer from me you might need to start making a little bit of sense.
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by WalterView Post

Best ON premier in my lifetime.

I'm very sorry for your circumstances
 
Count_Lothian
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Is asking you a question some sort of burden or insult?

You said you agreed with Gerryh, who was talking to me about voting for local MPPs rather than the party in a very binary, one or the other, way.



Lol, those sound like fighting words to me.

Considering the party that will gain power certainly doesn't mean I don't vote with a conscience(I assume that is the word you were going for), or that I am some partisan hack.

The party that forms a government is going to have the keys to the province. They will control the budget, so they control how much I pay in taxes and what that money is spent on. They craft laws that I will have to live under.

So yeah, considering the party affiliation of the person you are voting for is pretty damn important.

nothing to get your shorts in a twist about .

I liked what gerryh said is all and consider the man a thinking person.
it's not a matter of who's right or wrong or fighting or anything of the sort.

I got something from what the man said is all, and enjoyed his view.
so shoot me.
 

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