Conservatives lead Liberals, NDP among both eligible and likely voters

[Locutus]

Support for federal Liberals in Ontario, BC declines among likely voters

April 22, 2014 – The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) continues to garner higher levels of backing among likely voters than the federal New Democrats and Liberals, according to the latest monthly poll from Angus Reid Global (ARG) measuring support for Canadian political parties.

A drop in support for the Liberal Party of Canada in vote-rich Ontario also means the CPC is leading among eligible voters this month.

The Conservatives now hold a two-point lead over the Liberals among eligible voters, but their advantage increases to five points when voting turnout factors are applied.


April standings:

The latest survey in this series went into field as MPs were heading back to their ridings for a two week parliamentary break, following raucous debate over Elections Act changes, headlines concerning candidate selections for the Liberal and Conservative parties, and the sudden death of former finance minister Jim Flaherty.

This ARG poll shows 32 per cent of eligible voters say they would choose a CPC candidate in their riding if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 30 per cent who would chose a Liberal candidate. 26 per cent say they would vote NDP.

However, among those who are likely voters, the Conservatives open a wider lead, with the CPC at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent. For more information about the differences between eligible voter and likely voter analysis, see the methodological note at the end of this news release.

Conservatives lead Liberals, NDP among both eligible and likely voters in April | Angus Reid Global

steve needed less than 40% popular vote for his majority last time. sleep well. :lol:

 

[captain morgan]

This will be devastating news to Mentalfloss.

Looks like it's the beginning of the end for Justine and his merry band of politicos

 

[Retired_Can_Soldier]

Oh come on! Everyone knows Angus Reid is just a mouthpiece for the right!

 

[captain morgan]

That's impossible... It's a poll, backed by a study... Involves numbers and statistics and whatnot

 

[lone wolf]

By those numbers, it's a tight race

 

[Locutus]

by these numbers it looked close too

 

[captain morgan]

Liberal support will drop off again once Trudeau opens his mouth in public again... Maybe we can expect another Justin Unplugged event, it seemed to hurt him with the female demographic pretty effectively

 

[lone wolf]

I had a poll call a couple of days ago. They think I believe in Harper.

 

[mentalfloss]

That's only one polling company.

You want to look at the aggregate of all pollsters if you want an accurate reflection of the current trend.

At this point the likeliest best case scenario for PCs is a minority government but we will see how that changes after the next federal budget.

There is a strong chance that the Cons will call a snap election just after next years budget to maximize votes.

 

[lone wolf]

Wouldn't a snap election called by a majority government bend rules that government made? (C-16)

 

[mentalfloss]

Wouldn't a snap election called by a majority government bend rules that government made? (C-16)

I think so.

But da pundits are predicting they will do it anyway.

 

[BornRuff]

Liberal support will drop off again once Trudeau opens his mouth in public again... Maybe we can expect another Justin Unplugged event, it seemed to hurt him with the female demographic pretty effectively

I don't think anyone other than Consevative and NDP supporters really cared about that one.

Politics is a funny world where things can look very very different from different angles.

Support for federal Liberals in Ontario, BC declines among likely voters

April 22, 2014 – The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) continues to garner higher levels of backing among likely voters than the federal New Democrats and Liberals, according to the latest monthly poll from Angus Reid Global (ARG) measuring support for Canadian political parties.

A drop in support for the Liberal Party of Canada in vote-rich Ontario also means the CPC is leading among eligible voters this month.

The Conservatives now hold a two-point lead over the Liberals among eligible voters, but their advantage increases to five points when voting turnout factors are applied.


April standings:

The latest survey in this series went into field as MPs were heading back to their ridings for a two week parliamentary break, following raucous debate over Elections Act changes, headlines concerning candidate selections for the Liberal and Conservative parties, and the sudden death of former finance minister Jim Flaherty.

This ARG poll shows 32 per cent of eligible voters say they would choose a CPC candidate in their riding if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 30 per cent who would chose a Liberal candidate. 26 per cent say they would vote NDP.

However, among those who are likely voters, the Conservatives open a wider lead, with the CPC at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent. For more information about the differences between eligible voter and likely voter analysis, see the methodological note at the end of this news release.

Conservatives lead Liberals, NDP among both eligible and likely voters in April | Angus Reid Global

steve needed less than 40% popular vote for his majority last time. sleep well. :lol:

The margin of error on that poll is 3.4%, so they can't definitively say if there is any difference between the support for the Conservatives or the Liberals.

 

[mentalfloss]

Are we really back to that starting line? We will need to see what other polls say, because the Angus Reid survey is out of step with every other recent poll. But the Angus Reid poll was conducted after the death of Jim Flaherty (though before the state funeral). As the jump in Tory support has occurred in Ontario, this may not be a coincidence.

Nevertheless, we need to have confirmation before we reach any conclusions as Angus Reid is suggesting a significant realignment in what the polls have been showing for the last 12 months.

With these aggregate levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win around 133 seats, with 117 going to the Liberals, 84 to the New Democrats, two to the Greens, and two to the Bloc Québécois.

ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages

 

[Locutus]

That's only one polling company.

You want to look at the aggregate of all pollsters if you want an accurate reflection of the current trend.

At this point the likeliest best case scenario for PCs is a minority government but we will see how that changes after the next federal budget.

There is a strong chance that the Cons will call a snap election just after next years budget to maximize votes.

he mad

I don't think anyone other than Consevative and NDP supporters really cared about that one.

Politics is a funny world where things can look very very different from different angles.



The margin of error on that poll is 3.4%, so they can't definitively say if there is any difference between the support for the Conservatives or the Liberals.

he mad too

Are we really back to that starting line? We will need to see what other polls say, because the Angus Reid survey is out of step with every other recent poll. But the Angus Reid poll was conducted after the death of Jim Flaherty (though before the state funeral). As the jump in Tory support has occurred in Ontario, this may not be a coincidence.

Nevertheless, we need to have confirmation before we reach any conclusions as Angus Reid is suggesting a significant realignment in what the polls have been showing for the last 12 months.

With these aggregate levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win around 133 seats, with 117 going to the Liberals, 84 to the New Democrats, two to the Greens, and two to the Bloc Québécois.

ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages

he mad again

 

[BornRuff]

he mad too

Lol, it is fitting that you would respond with something about as meaningful as those poll results.

 

[Retired_Can_Soldier]

Lol, it is fitting that you would respond with something about as meaningful as those poll results.

Explain to me why you think they aren`t meaningful?

Oh come on! Everyone knows Angus Reid is just a mouthpiece for the right!

Apparently we really need a sarcasm emoticon because James Bondo gave me a thumbs down LOL.

 

[Colpy]

There is only one poll that counts, and it will be held in about 18 months.

 

[BornRuff]

Explain to me why you think they aren`t meaningful?

Because the margin of error is 3.4% and the "difference" between the two results falls within that margin of error.

%32 vs %30 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% is not a statistically significant difference. They are saying that for all they know, the Conservative support could actually be 28.6% and the Liberal support 33.4%, or any other possible combination within the margin of error.

Trying to predict likely voter turnout is something that is nice to try, but there is no evidence that these guys can do that with any degree of accuracy. Turnout for each party is mostly a function of each party's ability to get out the vote, and that varies from election to election.

 

[captain morgan]

Apparently we really need a sarcasm emoticon because James Bondo gave me a thumbs down LOL.

I could have used that idea recently... Made a big mistake on ripping on someone because I was unable to pick up on their sarcasm.

(Sorry 'bout that Mhz)

 

[lone wolf]

Apparently we really need a sarcasm emoticon because James Bondo gave me a thumbs down LOL.

Some of us use purple... and some even understand it