Conservatives lead Liberals, NDP among both eligible and likely voters


Locutus
#1
Support for federal Liberals in Ontario, BC declines among likely voters

April 22, 2014 – The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) continues to garner higher levels of backing among likely voters than the federal New Democrats and Liberals, according to the latest monthly poll from Angus Reid Global (ARG) measuring support for Canadian political parties.

A drop in support for the Liberal Party of Canada in vote-rich Ontario also means the CPC is leading among eligible voters this month.

The Conservatives now hold a two-point lead over the Liberals among eligible voters, but their advantage increases to five points when voting turnout factors are applied.


April standings:

The latest survey in this series went into field as MPs were heading back to their ridings for a two week parliamentary break, following raucous debate over Elections Act changes (external - login to view), headlines concerning candidate selections for the Liberal and Conservative parties, and the sudden death of former finance minister Jim Flaherty.

This ARG poll shows 32 per cent of eligible voters say they would choose a CPC candidate in their riding if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 30 per cent who would chose a Liberal candidate. 26 per cent say they would vote NDP.

However, among those who are likely voters, the Conservatives open a wider lead, with the CPC at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent. For more information about the differences between eligible voter and likely voter analysis, see the methodological note at the end of this news release.




Conservatives lead Liberals, NDP among both eligible and likely voters in April | Angus Reid Global (external - login to view)

steve needed less than 40% popular vote for his majority last time. sleep well.
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
+1
#2
This will be devastating news to Mentalfloss.

Looks like it's the beginning of the end for Justine and his merry band of politicos
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
-1
#3
Oh come on! Everyone knows Angus Reid is just a mouthpiece for the right!
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
+1
#4
That's impossible... It's a poll, backed by a study... Involves numbers and statistics and whatnot
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
+2
#5  Top Rated Post
By those numbers, it's a tight race
 
Locutus
+2
#6
by these numbers it looked close too

 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
#7
Liberal support will drop off again once Trudeau opens his mouth in public again... Maybe we can expect another Justin Unplugged event, it seemed to hurt him with the female demographic pretty effectively
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
+1
#8
I had a poll call a couple of days ago. They think I believe in Harper.
 
mentalfloss
+1
#9
That's only one polling company.

You want to look at the aggregate of all pollsters if you want an accurate reflection of the current trend.

At this point the likeliest best case scenario for PCs is a minority government but we will see how that changes after the next federal budget.

There is a strong chance that the Cons will call a snap election just after next years budget to maximize votes.
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#10
Wouldn't a snap election called by a majority government bend rules that government made? (C-16)
 
mentalfloss
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by lone wolfView Post

Wouldn't a snap election called by a majority government bend rules that government made? (C-16)

I think so.

But da pundits are predicting they will do it anyway.
 
BornRuff
+1
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

Liberal support will drop off again once Trudeau opens his mouth in public again... Maybe we can expect another Justin Unplugged event, it seemed to hurt him with the female demographic pretty effectively

I don't think anyone other than Consevative and NDP supporters really cared about that one.

Politics is a funny world where things can look very very different from different angles.

Quote: Originally Posted by LocutusView Post

Support for federal Liberals in Ontario, BC declines among likely voters

April 22, 2014 – The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) continues to garner higher levels of backing among likely voters than the federal New Democrats and Liberals, according to the latest monthly poll from Angus Reid Global (ARG) measuring support for Canadian political parties.

A drop in support for the Liberal Party of Canada in vote-rich Ontario also means the CPC is leading among eligible voters this month.

The Conservatives now hold a two-point lead over the Liberals among eligible voters, but their advantage increases to five points when voting turnout factors are applied.


April standings:

The latest survey in this series went into field as MPs were heading back to their ridings for a two week parliamentary break, following raucous debate over Elections Act changes (external - login to view), headlines concerning candidate selections for the Liberal and Conservative parties, and the sudden death of former finance minister Jim Flaherty.

This ARG poll shows 32 per cent of eligible voters say they would choose a CPC candidate in their riding if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 30 per cent who would chose a Liberal candidate. 26 per cent say they would vote NDP.

However, among those who are likely voters, the Conservatives open a wider lead, with the CPC at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent. For more information about the differences between eligible voter and likely voter analysis, see the methodological note at the end of this news release.




Conservatives lead Liberals, NDP among both eligible and likely voters in April | Angus Reid Global (external - login to view)

steve needed less than 40% popular vote for his majority last time. sleep well.

The margin of error on that poll is 3.4%, so they can't definitively say if there is any difference between the support for the Conservatives or the Liberals.
 
mentalfloss
+1
#13
Are we really back to that starting line? We will need to see what other polls say, because the Angus Reid survey is out of step with every other recent poll. But the Angus Reid poll was conducted after the death of Jim Flaherty (though before the state funeral). As the jump in Tory support has occurred in Ontario, this may not be a coincidence.

Nevertheless, we need to have confirmation before we reach any conclusions as Angus Reid is suggesting a significant realignment in what the polls have been showing for the last 12 months.

With these aggregate levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win around 133 seats, with 117 going to the Liberals, 84 to the New Democrats, two to the Greens, and two to the Bloc Québécois.


ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages (external - login to view)
 
Locutus
+2
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post

That's only one polling company.

You want to look at the aggregate of all pollsters if you want an accurate reflection of the current trend.

At this point the likeliest best case scenario for PCs is a minority government but we will see how that changes after the next federal budget.

There is a strong chance that the Cons will call a snap election just after next years budget to maximize votes.

he mad

Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

I don't think anyone other than Consevative and NDP supporters really cared about that one.

Politics is a funny world where things can look very very different from different angles.



The margin of error on that poll is 3.4%, so they can't definitively say if there is any difference between the support for the Conservatives or the Liberals.

he mad too

Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post

Are we really back to that starting line? We will need to see what other polls say, because the Angus Reid survey is out of step with every other recent poll. But the Angus Reid poll was conducted after the death of Jim Flaherty (though before the state funeral). As the jump in Tory support has occurred in Ontario, this may not be a coincidence.

Nevertheless, we need to have confirmation before we reach any conclusions as Angus Reid is suggesting a significant realignment in what the polls have been showing for the last 12 months.

With these aggregate levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win around 133 seats, with 117 going to the Liberals, 84 to the New Democrats, two to the Greens, and two to the Bloc Québécois.


ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages (external - login to view)


he mad again
 
BornRuff
+2
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by LocutusView Post

he mad too

Lol, it is fitting that you would respond with something about as meaningful as those poll results.
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
+1
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Lol, it is fitting that you would respond with something about as meaningful as those poll results.

Explain to me why you think they aren`t meaningful?

Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Oh come on! Everyone knows Angus Reid is just a mouthpiece for the right!

Apparently we really need a sarcasm emoticon because James Bondo gave me a thumbs down LOL.
 
Colpy
Conservative
#17
There is only one poll that counts, and it will be held in about 18 months.
 
BornRuff
+1
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Explain to me why you think they aren`t meaningful?

Because the margin of error is 3.4% and the "difference" between the two results falls within that margin of error.

%32 vs %30 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% is not a statistically significant difference. They are saying that for all they know, the Conservative support could actually be 28.6% and the Liberal support 33.4%, or any other possible combination within the margin of error.

Trying to predict likely voter turnout is something that is nice to try, but there is no evidence that these guys can do that with any degree of accuracy. Turnout for each party is mostly a function of each party's ability to get out the vote, and that varies from election to election.
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Apparently we really need a sarcasm emoticon because James Bondo gave me a thumbs down LOL.


I could have used that idea recently... Made a big mistake on ripping on someone because I was unable to pick up on their sarcasm.

(Sorry 'bout that Mhz)
 
lone wolf
Free Thinker
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

Apparently we really need a sarcasm emoticon because James Bondo gave me a thumbs down LOL.

Some of us use purple... and some even understand it
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by lone wolfView Post

Some of us use purple... and some even understand it

I look terrible in purple. SEE!

Quote: Originally Posted by BornRuffView Post

Because the margin of error is 3.4% and the "difference" between the two results falls within that margin of error.

%32 vs %30 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% is not a statistically significant difference. They are saying that for all they know, the Conservative support could actually be 28.6% and the Liberal support 33.4%, or any other possible combination within the margin of error.

Trying to predict likely voter turnout is something that is nice to try, but there is no evidence that these guys can do that with any degree of accuracy. Turnout for each party is mostly a function of each party's ability to get out the vote, and that varies from election to election.

Yep, look at that we agree.
 
Cliffy
Free Thinker
#22
Another Con government?

 
Retired_Can_Soldier
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by CliffyView Post

Another Con government?

It's going to be fun!
 
QuebecCanadian
#24
I like to use this guy for sarcasm :/

Not that I'm ever sarcastic :/
 
Cliffy
Free Thinker
+1
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

It's going to be fun!

What will be fun - watching me stick a knife in my eye or another 4 years of those azzhats screwing up the country?
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by CliffyView Post

What will be fun - watching me stick a knife in my eye or another 4 years of those azzhats screwing up the country?

The preamble to you doing it. I bet you can't do it in one stroke.
 
damngrumpy
No Party Affiliation
#27
Actually its a disaster for the Tories at 32% they have fallen to a new never comeback
position. Two years ago they were in a better spot with 38% plus ratings and now they
are dipping. Each time they go down they never make it back to the place they had
after the last election.
Numbers are right they will be luck to hold a minority government.
Also figure in the election call and if they are in the same range the Tories will lose or
at best hang on to a razor thin minority
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by damngrumpyView Post

Actually its a disaster for the Tories at 32% they have fallen to a new never comeback
position. Two years ago they were in a better spot with 38% plus ratings and now they
are dipping. Each time they go down they never make it back to the place they had
after the last election.
Numbers are right they will be luck to hold a minority government.
Also figure in the election call and if they are in the same range the Tories will lose or
at best hang on to a razor thin minority

I disagree. Things will change quite a bit when the Demented Child King actually has to stand his ground in a debate. I bet Mulcair could wipe his sphincter with Trudeau. And if the NDP rebounds the Liberals will be where they've been for some time. In the doldrums.
 
BornRuff
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by Retired_Can_SoldierView Post

I disagree. Things will change quite a bit when the Demented Child King actually has to stand his ground in a debate. I bet Mulcair could wipe his sphincter with Trudeau. And if the NDP rebounds the Liberals will be where they've been for some time. In the doldrums.

Mulcair is a great prosecutor. Unfortunately for him, in a debate, his opponents are under no obligation to actually answer his questions, so that style doesn't necessarily get you very far.

I'm sure he will ask lots of great questions and make lots of great points, but Harper and Trudeau will just stick to his talking points. Tommy may as well use the time to start moving out of Stornoway.
 

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