The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.
The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).
Regionally, the Liberals were ahead in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives led in Alberta and the Prairies and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec.
The numbers in Quebec are interesting, as they put the Bloc ahead with 29% to 28% for the NDP and 25% for the Liberals. That is quite unusual, and represents a swing of 10 points from the Liberals to the Bloc. This could be a by-product of the on-going campaign in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois is polling substantially higher than the Bloc. We will have to see what other polls say about the federal race in the province to determine whether this is a fluke or not.
There was also a big jump in British Columbia, where the Liberals gained 13 points to lead with 39%. The gain came proportionately from the Conservatives (down to 31%), the NDP (down to 21%), and the Greens (down to 9%). Another province to keep an eye on.
But overall, these numbers show little real change from where things have stood since the fall of 2013. We will likely have to wait until after the provincial elections in Quebec and Ontario (assuming the latter takes place this spring) before getting a good idea of where things really stand.
The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).
ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages (external - login to view)