Liberals solidifying their lead over Conservatives


mentalfloss
+1
#1
Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

Regionally, the Liberals were ahead in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives led in Alberta and the Prairies and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec.

The numbers in Quebec are interesting, as they put the Bloc ahead with 29% to 28% for the NDP and 25% for the Liberals. That is quite unusual, and represents a swing of 10 points from the Liberals to the Bloc. This could be a by-product of the on-going campaign in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois is polling substantially higher than the Bloc. We will have to see what other polls say about the federal race in the province to determine whether this is a fluke or not.

There was also a big jump in British Columbia, where the Liberals gained 13 points to lead with 39%. The gain came proportionately from the Conservatives (down to 31%), the NDP (down to 21%), and the Greens (down to 9%). Another province to keep an eye on.

But overall, these numbers show little real change from where things have stood since the fall of 2013. We will likely have to wait until after the provincial elections in Quebec and Ontario (assuming the latter takes place this spring) before getting a good idea of where things really stand.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages

 
DaSleeper
+2
#2
What??? No hockey stick?
 
Locutus
#3
It'll catch up to ms troodoh

Zach Paikin dumps team Trudeau over lack of openness | Lilley’s Pad
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#4
Quote:

Regionally, the Liberals were ahead in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives led in Alberta and the Prairies and....

I always though Alberta was part of the prairies

The best thing Trudeau has going for him is that the Conservatives and their supporters can't really come up with any positives about their party. The Conservatives sound a lot like the Liberals when they attacked Manning. I think fewer and fewer people fall for that nonsense. Either Justin is going to shoot himself in the foot or he's going to be the next PM.
 
Nuggler
#5
[QUOTE=Cannuck;1887031]I always though Alberta was part of the prairies

Not to hear them tell it
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by NugglerView Post

Not to hear them tell it

Nonsense. We couldn't be the best part of the prairies if we weren't part of the prairies. We are what every other prairie-ite dreams of becoming
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
-1
#7
[QUOTE=mentalfloss;1887014]Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

/QUOTE]


This frickin' polls are absolutely useless any more than 12 hours in advance of an election and even then they are doubtful. I don't expect Junior to go very far and time is NOT on his side.
 
mentalfloss
#8
[QUOTE=JLM;1887043]
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post

Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

/QUOTE]


This frickin' polls are absolutely useless any more than 12 hours in advance of an election and even then they are doubtful. I don't expect Junior to go very far and time is NOT on his side.

It depends on a case by case basis. B

There are some elections where the results are in line with what was polled. And then there are some that have a sudden shift.


One thing is certain so far.

Harper has been spending quite a bit on attack ads the last few months and it isn't making a dent in Liberal support.
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
+1
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post


One thing is certain so far.

Harper has been spending quite a bit on attack ads the last few months and it isn't making a dent in Liberal support.


This is the only attack ad that the Cons or Dippers will ever need.

 
El Barto
+1
#10
they put the Bloc ahead with 29%






Gah ..................

Quote: Originally Posted by LocutusView Post

It'll catch up to ms troodoh

Zach Paikin dumps team Trudeau over lack of openness | Lilley’s Pad

Another Loco wet moment eh?
 
Goober
Free Thinker
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post

It depends on a case by case basis. B

There are some elections where the results are in line with what was polled. And then there are some that have a sudden shift.


One thing is certain so far.

Harper has been spending quite a bit on attack ads the last few months and it isn't making a dent in Liberal support.

Do you think Trudeau will or will not use attack adds?
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by GooberView Post

Do you think Trudeau will or will not use attack adds?


Either way won't make much difference. He just don't have it!
 
L Gilbert
No Party Affiliation
+2
#13
All I see is gloom in the future unless some freakish thing happens and we get an intelligent and wise PM.
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
+1
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

All I see is gloom in the future unless some freakish thing happens and we get an intelligent and wise PM.


Don't hold your breath! -
 
El Barto
+3
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

All I see is gloom in the future unless some freakish thing happens and we get an intelligent and wise PM.

There you go daydreaming again
 
Goober
Free Thinker
+1
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

All I see is gloom in the future unless some freakish thing happens and we get an intelligent and wise PM.

Pretty sad what we have to pick from.
The Cons have no depth within caucas and act like they are still in opposition.
 
Zipperfish
No Party Affiliation
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by JLMView Post

Either way won't make much difference. He just don't have it!

That would be the Conservative angle, yes. And the Liberal angle is that a Harper is a vindictive control freak who will do anything to cling to power. And Mulcair will be taking swings at both as the "same old same old."

Competing narratives. Hard to say which one will win out. Harper's attack ads aren't really working on Trudeau. Trudeau's honeymoon is almost over, but he is still prone to gaffes. Mulcair has been extremely effective holding the government to account, but he's in a tenuous situation with his power in Quebec--they are a fickle lot.
 
L Gilbert
No Party Affiliation
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by ZipperfishView Post

That would be the Conservative angle, yes. And the Liberal angle is that a Harper is a vindictive control freak who will do anything to cling to power.

lol Sounds just like Martin.
 
captain morgan
Bloc Québécois
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by ZipperfishView Post

That would be the Conservative angle, yes. And the Liberal angle is that a Harper is a vindictive control freak who will do anything to cling to power. And Mulcair will be taking swings at both as the "same old same old."

Competing narratives. Hard to say which one will win out. Harper's attack ads aren't really working on Trudeau. Trudeau's honeymoon is almost over, but he is still prone to gaffes. Mulcair has been extremely effective holding the government to account, but he's in a tenuous situation with his power in Quebec--they are a fickle lot.


Expect the Dippers to launch an all-out attack on Trudeau in Quebec.

Their entire voter base is basically in Que and the Cons don't have a hope of generating any traction there. As it stands, Justine will stand the best chance of making headway in Que at the expense of the Dippers, so that is where I expect that teh Official Opposition battle will be won and lost.

Either way, Harper has little to worry about
 
Zipperfish
No Party Affiliation
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morganView Post

Expect the Dippers to launch an all-out attack on Trudeau in Quebec.

Their entire voter base is basically in Que and the Cons don't have a hope of generating any traction there. As it stands, Justine will stand the best chance of making headway in Que at the expense of the Dippers, so that is where I expect that teh Official Opposition battle will be won and lost.

Either way, Harper has little to worry about

Meh. Too early to tell. The only thing I'd bet on at this point is that the Liberals will be back to contender status in the 2015 election.
 
Colpy
Conservative
#21
Let's make this real simple for you"

Trudeau is an idiot.

Not only is he an idiot, he has no relevant education or experience.

Not only is he an inexperienced idiot, he is a liar. (see his promises on nominations and "top down" leadership)

Not only is he an inexperienced lying idiot, he is a man with a dangerous admiration for tyrants.

So, if you want a stupid, inexperienced lying tyrant as prime minister of Canada, feel free to vote Liberal.

Count me out.
 
El Barto
+5
#22
Yes that is true , our tyrants must have experience !
 
arob
#23
We seen this all before...
Liberals in the lead with Dion !
 
L Gilbert
No Party Affiliation
+2
#24
Um, how one's sposed to get experience at being the PM without actually having been PM before is a mystery to me. I don't think Harpy had much experience at it either.
 
El Barto
+3
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

Um, how one's sposed to get experience at being the PM without actually having been PM before is a mystery to me. I don't think Harpy had much experience at it either.

Who need experience when you promise one thing and you do another?
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by ColpyView Post

Let's make this real simple for you"

Trudeau is an idiot.

Not only is he an idiot, he has no relevant education or experience.

Not only is he an inexperienced idiot, he is a liar. (see his promises on nominations and "top down" leadership)

Not only is he an inexperienced lying idiot, he is a man with a dangerous admiration for tyrants.

So, if you want a stupid, inexperienced lying tyrant as prime minister of Canada, feel free to vote Liberal.

Count me out.


Probably Colpy, but he comes by it honestly!

Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

Um, how one's sposed to get experience at being the PM without actually having been PM before is a mystery to me. I don't think Harpy had much experience at it either.


Maybe they should start out running a really small country like Luxemburg! -
 
pgs
Free Thinker
#27
[QUOTE=JLM;1887043]
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalflossView Post

Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

/QUOTE]


This frickin' polls are absolutely useless any more than 12 hours in advance of an election and even then they are doubtful. I don't expect Junior to go very far and time is NOT on his side.

Yup those same polls had Eggnatieve Dionne Martin and how many others in front big woo
p .

Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

Um, how one's sposed to get experience at being the PM without actually having been PM before is a mystery to me. I don't think Harpy had much experience at it either.

Les for P.M.no experience necessary .
 
Zipperfish
No Party Affiliation
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by ColpyView Post

Let's make this real simple for you"

Trudeau is an idiot.

Not only is he an idiot, he has no relevant education or experience.

Not only is he an inexperienced idiot, he is a liar. (see his promises on nominations and "top down" leadership)

Not only is he an inexperienced lying idiot, he is a man with a dangerous admiration for tyrants.

So, if you want a stupid, inexperienced lying tyrant as prime minister of Canada, feel free to vote Liberal.

Count me out.

If he's that much of an idiot, that actually doesn't bode well for teh COnservatvies either, becuse people will realize it early on and the ABC (Anyone But Conservatives) will move to the NDP. It works in the Conservatvie's favour if they get a good split between the Liberals and NDP.

I'm not sure if I'm voting Liberal or NDP yet.
 
IdRatherBeSkiing
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by L GilbertView Post

All I see is gloom in the future unless some freakish thing happens and we get an intelligent and wise PM.

So an unnamed party will form before 2015 and win the most seats first time out?

I can see why Harper is lagging. He has a bit of a boring government punctuated by stupid ****e. But I really don't see how anybody would want Justin Trudeau to be PM. And Mulcair is a complete disappointment. I thought he had potential. Instead it looks like he will lead the NDP back to oblivion.

Great choices. Wonder if voter turnout will top 40%?
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by IdRatherBeSkiingView Post

So an unnamed party will form before 2015 and win the most seats first time out?

I can see why Harper is lagging. He has a bit of a boring government punctuated by stupid ****e. But I really don't see how anybody would want Justin Trudeau to be PM. And Mulcair is a complete disappointment. I thought he had potential. Instead it looks like he will lead the NDP back to oblivion.

Great choices. Wonder if voter turnout will top 40%?


I think pretty well everyone (outside of Quebec) knows the N.D.P. will settle back to around 30 seats!
 

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