Liberals solidifying their lead over Conservatives

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

Regionally, the Liberals were ahead in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives led in Alberta and the Prairies and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec.

The numbers in Quebec are interesting, as they put the Bloc ahead with 29% to 28% for the NDP and 25% for the Liberals. That is quite unusual, and represents a swing of 10 points from the Liberals to the Bloc. This could be a by-product of the on-going campaign in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois is polling substantially higher than the Bloc. We will have to see what other polls say about the federal race in the province to determine whether this is a fluke or not.

There was also a big jump in British Columbia, where the Liberals gained 13 points to lead with 39%. The gain came proportionately from the Conservatives (down to 31%), the NDP (down to 21%), and the Greens (down to 9%). Another province to keep an eye on.

But overall, these numbers show little real change from where things have stood since the fall of 2013. We will likely have to wait until after the provincial elections in Quebec and Ontario (assuming the latter takes place this spring) before getting a good idea of where things really stand.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

ThreeHundredEight.com: Canadian federal polling averages

 

Cannuck

Time Out
Feb 2, 2006
30,245
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Regionally, the Liberals were ahead in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives led in Alberta and the Prairies and....

I always though Alberta was part of the prairies

The best thing Trudeau has going for him is that the Conservatives and their supporters can't really come up with any positives about their party. The Conservatives sound a lot like the Liberals when they attacked Manning. I think fewer and fewer people fall for that nonsense. Either Justin is going to shoot himself in the foot or he's going to be the next PM.
 

JLM

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 27, 2008
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Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

/QUOTE]


This frickin' polls are absolutely useless any more than 12 hours in advance of an election and even then they are doubtful. I don't expect Junior to go very far and time is NOT on his side.
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
39,778
454
83
Canadian Federal Polling Averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on March 17, 2014 with the addition of a new poll by Abacus Data.

The Abacus poll shows no real change from the firm's last survey of Jan. 14-18. The Liberals continued to lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the New Democrats at 23% (down one point).

/QUOTE]


This frickin' polls are absolutely useless any more than 12 hours in advance of an election and even then they are doubtful. I don't expect Junior to go very far and time is NOT on his side.

It depends on a case by case basis. B

There are some elections where the results are in line with what was polled. And then there are some that have a sudden shift.


One thing is certain so far.

Harper has been spending quite a bit on attack ads the last few months and it isn't making a dent in Liberal support.
 

Goober

Hall of Fame Member
Jan 23, 2009
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It depends on a case by case basis. B

There are some elections where the results are in line with what was polled. And then there are some that have a sudden shift.


One thing is certain so far.

Harper has been spending quite a bit on attack ads the last few months and it isn't making a dent in Liberal support.

Do you think Trudeau will or will not use attack adds?
 

Goober

Hall of Fame Member
Jan 23, 2009
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All I see is gloom in the future unless some freakish thing happens and we get an intelligent and wise PM.
Pretty sad what we have to pick from.
The Cons have no depth within caucas and act like they are still in opposition.
 

Zipperfish

House Member
Apr 12, 2013
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Either way won't make much difference. He just don't have it!

That would be the Conservative angle, yes. And the Liberal angle is that a Harper is a vindictive control freak who will do anything to cling to power. And Mulcair will be taking swings at both as the "same old same old."

Competing narratives. Hard to say which one will win out. Harper's attack ads aren't really working on Trudeau. Trudeau's honeymoon is almost over, but he is still prone to gaffes. Mulcair has been extremely effective holding the government to account, but he's in a tenuous situation with his power in Quebec--they are a fickle lot.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
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That would be the Conservative angle, yes. And the Liberal angle is that a Harper is a vindictive control freak who will do anything to cling to power. And Mulcair will be taking swings at both as the "same old same old."

Competing narratives. Hard to say which one will win out. Harper's attack ads aren't really working on Trudeau. Trudeau's honeymoon is almost over, but he is still prone to gaffes. Mulcair has been extremely effective holding the government to account, but he's in a tenuous situation with his power in Quebec--they are a fickle lot.


Expect the Dippers to launch an all-out attack on Trudeau in Quebec.

Their entire voter base is basically in Que and the Cons don't have a hope of generating any traction there. As it stands, Justine will stand the best chance of making headway in Que at the expense of the Dippers, so that is where I expect that teh Official Opposition battle will be won and lost.

Either way, Harper has little to worry about
 

Zipperfish

House Member
Apr 12, 2013
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Expect the Dippers to launch an all-out attack on Trudeau in Quebec.

Their entire voter base is basically in Que and the Cons don't have a hope of generating any traction there. As it stands, Justine will stand the best chance of making headway in Que at the expense of the Dippers, so that is where I expect that teh Official Opposition battle will be won and lost.

Either way, Harper has little to worry about

Meh. Too early to tell. The only thing I'd bet on at this point is that the Liberals will be back to contender status in the 2015 election.