That's a shame.
Toronto’s divide-and-conquer conservatives doomed to split the vote and hand Olivia Chow the mayor’s job
And so now it is official: John Tory, hardcore squishy centrist, will join like-minded middle-of-the-roaders Karen Stintz and David Soknacki in a political battle with Rob Ford for the hearts, minds and wallets of Toronto voters who are on the conservative side of the political spectrum.
In other words, ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce these candidates for mayor of Toronto as the Olivia Chow Mayoral Election Committee. Ms. Chow is sitting out in left wing, officially silent but apparently set to announce her candidacy soon, now no doubt elated by the news that Mr. Tory and Ms Stintz are now also running to lead Canada’s largest city.
My bet is that nobody else on the left will enter the race, or at least nobody of consequence, setting the stage for Ms. Chow to swoop into city hall as Toronto’s next mayor. All she needs is maybe 41% of the vote to win, leaving the centrists and right-of-centre candidates squabbling among themselves, splitting their potential vote four ways. At this point, a good guess would be Tory at 22%, Ford at 20%, Stintz at 7% and Soknacki at 4% and the usual gaggle of no-names picking up the rest.
That’s really just a guess, more to illustrate the point than predict the final results. Anything can happen between now and October in a first-past-the-post contest. But the point is that the left, writhing in out-of-office agony for the last few years, is (I think) too smart to get into divisive splitting of its own vote.
Backed by the unions and other entrenched NDP factions that hold hammerlocks on downtown power bases, the left is united, one single party behind a single cause that will be easy to articulate as an anti-Ford, anti-right-wing coalition, a force for good in a city that needs to beat back the Ford Nation craziness.
The Olivia Chow Mayoral Election Committee is playing right into this scenario. While the left will be running to win, the conservative candidates will be running divide-and-conquer campaigns against their own diverse forces. Instead of taking on the left, the Tory/Stintz/Ford/Soknacki forces will bash one another into losing, minority positions.
It’s already started, with Mr. Ford attacking Mr. Tory, Mr. Soknacki blasting Mr. Ford, Ms. Stintz angling for position against the others. Toronto’s for-hire political operatives, loyal to no one, are jumping aboard the different campaigns, ready to wipe one another out before the full election is even underway.
Centrist Torontonians should know that Toronto is not a naturally conservative town. Post amalgamation, the city has tilted to the left. David Miller won with 57% of the vote in 2006 in a no-contest battle with Jane Pitfield. In 2003, Mr. Miller collected 43% against John Tory, but only because fellow leftist Barbara Hall was too stubborn to get out the race. She took 9% of the votes that would otherwise have gone to Mr. Miller, giving the left a solid majority.
Rob Ford’s big 2010 victory came with only 47% of the total vote. Theoretically, Rob Ford could have lost to George Smitherman (at 35%) if Joe Pantalone had not held on to split the left and collect 12% of the vote.
Now the right seems set to split the vote, handing the mayor’s job to Ms. Chow, who will run hard on a Remember Jack Layton platform and the need to get back to the gravy train.
Toronto, in other words, is politically divisible into two, with the mayor’s job going to the side that can avoid ripping itself apart.
One reason for the multiple-candidate scramble is the lack of political parties at the municipal level, a structure that would impose at least some discipline on the mayoral contests. If Toronto had a Toronto Civic Party that embraced the city’s centre/right factions, the current flock of candidates might have been whittled down to one strong contender representing a more conservative view of city government. At a convention, they might have turfed out Rob Ford, or defeated John Tory — who knows?
Instead of holding a party convention, Toronto’s conservatives (fiscal discipline, reduced micro-interventionism, focus on core responsibilities) are set to hold a self-flagellating popularity contest in the midst of the election, a contest that loses sight of what should be the real objective: beating back the left.
Another theoretical option is a better electoral system for mayor structured around run-off votes until one candidate gets a clear majority. It would drag the election period out, and Ms. Chow might still win such a vote, but at least it would be a straight contest rather than a victory created by default as the opposition splits votes in all directions.
And of course the race could also tighten between now and October. Ms. Stintz and Mr. Soknacki may well drop out. But that would still leave John Tory and Rob Ford slashing and burning their way to defeat, splitting the conservative vote and opening the way for Olivia Chow to skate right through to the mayor’s office.
Toronto’s divide-and-conquer conservatives doomed to split the vote and hand Olivia Chow the mayor’s job
Toronto’s divide-and-conquer conservatives doomed to split the vote and hand Olivia Chow the mayor’s job
And so now it is official: John Tory, hardcore squishy centrist, will join like-minded middle-of-the-roaders Karen Stintz and David Soknacki in a political battle with Rob Ford for the hearts, minds and wallets of Toronto voters who are on the conservative side of the political spectrum.
In other words, ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce these candidates for mayor of Toronto as the Olivia Chow Mayoral Election Committee. Ms. Chow is sitting out in left wing, officially silent but apparently set to announce her candidacy soon, now no doubt elated by the news that Mr. Tory and Ms Stintz are now also running to lead Canada’s largest city.
My bet is that nobody else on the left will enter the race, or at least nobody of consequence, setting the stage for Ms. Chow to swoop into city hall as Toronto’s next mayor. All she needs is maybe 41% of the vote to win, leaving the centrists and right-of-centre candidates squabbling among themselves, splitting their potential vote four ways. At this point, a good guess would be Tory at 22%, Ford at 20%, Stintz at 7% and Soknacki at 4% and the usual gaggle of no-names picking up the rest.
That’s really just a guess, more to illustrate the point than predict the final results. Anything can happen between now and October in a first-past-the-post contest. But the point is that the left, writhing in out-of-office agony for the last few years, is (I think) too smart to get into divisive splitting of its own vote.
Backed by the unions and other entrenched NDP factions that hold hammerlocks on downtown power bases, the left is united, one single party behind a single cause that will be easy to articulate as an anti-Ford, anti-right-wing coalition, a force for good in a city that needs to beat back the Ford Nation craziness.
The Olivia Chow Mayoral Election Committee is playing right into this scenario. While the left will be running to win, the conservative candidates will be running divide-and-conquer campaigns against their own diverse forces. Instead of taking on the left, the Tory/Stintz/Ford/Soknacki forces will bash one another into losing, minority positions.
It’s already started, with Mr. Ford attacking Mr. Tory, Mr. Soknacki blasting Mr. Ford, Ms. Stintz angling for position against the others. Toronto’s for-hire political operatives, loyal to no one, are jumping aboard the different campaigns, ready to wipe one another out before the full election is even underway.
Centrist Torontonians should know that Toronto is not a naturally conservative town. Post amalgamation, the city has tilted to the left. David Miller won with 57% of the vote in 2006 in a no-contest battle with Jane Pitfield. In 2003, Mr. Miller collected 43% against John Tory, but only because fellow leftist Barbara Hall was too stubborn to get out the race. She took 9% of the votes that would otherwise have gone to Mr. Miller, giving the left a solid majority.
Rob Ford’s big 2010 victory came with only 47% of the total vote. Theoretically, Rob Ford could have lost to George Smitherman (at 35%) if Joe Pantalone had not held on to split the left and collect 12% of the vote.
Now the right seems set to split the vote, handing the mayor’s job to Ms. Chow, who will run hard on a Remember Jack Layton platform and the need to get back to the gravy train.
Toronto, in other words, is politically divisible into two, with the mayor’s job going to the side that can avoid ripping itself apart.
One reason for the multiple-candidate scramble is the lack of political parties at the municipal level, a structure that would impose at least some discipline on the mayoral contests. If Toronto had a Toronto Civic Party that embraced the city’s centre/right factions, the current flock of candidates might have been whittled down to one strong contender representing a more conservative view of city government. At a convention, they might have turfed out Rob Ford, or defeated John Tory — who knows?
Instead of holding a party convention, Toronto’s conservatives (fiscal discipline, reduced micro-interventionism, focus on core responsibilities) are set to hold a self-flagellating popularity contest in the midst of the election, a contest that loses sight of what should be the real objective: beating back the left.
Another theoretical option is a better electoral system for mayor structured around run-off votes until one candidate gets a clear majority. It would drag the election period out, and Ms. Chow might still win such a vote, but at least it would be a straight contest rather than a victory created by default as the opposition splits votes in all directions.
And of course the race could also tighten between now and October. Ms. Stintz and Mr. Soknacki may well drop out. But that would still leave John Tory and Rob Ford slashing and burning their way to defeat, splitting the conservative vote and opening the way for Olivia Chow to skate right through to the mayor’s office.
Toronto’s divide-and-conquer conservatives doomed to split the vote and hand Olivia Chow the mayor’s job
