Soknacki blasts Ford over bad math

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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How the mighty have fallen!

David Soknacki blasts Rob Ford over ‘bad math’ as he warns Scarborough subways will push city’s debt to $7B

Toronto’s debt will double in eight years if Mayor Rob Ford fulfills his promise to turn current light rail lines into subways, David Soknacki, the mayoral contender, warned Friday.

“Rob Ford talks a lot about respect for taxpayers, but it starts with respect for basic math,” Mr. Soknacki told reporters at the Hilton Hotel. “Voters deserve the real numbers.”

Mr. Soknacki, a budget chief under former mayor David Miller, said that, based on an estimate of $400-million per kilometre, building subways on current Scarborough Rapid Transit line, on Sheppard Avenue and on Finch Avenue West would push the debt to $7 billion by 2022-23.

“If Rob Ford is in the unlikely position to deliver on his subway promises, he will double the city’s debt,” Mr. Soknacki said.

The average Toronto home pays about $300 a year in debt servicing charges, Mr. Soknacki added.

“The average burden per household would go to $600 or $700 just to service unnecessary expenses,” Mr. Soknacki said. Mr. Soknacki said his math includes assumptions that Ottawa and Queen’s Park would fund Mr. Ford’s subway dreams to the same amount that they are funding the Scarborough subway extension.

Mr. Soknacki, a former Scarborough councillor who owns a business that extracts flavours from spices, repeated his plan to scrap the subway extension for Scarborough. He wants to return to the seven-stop light rail line previously approved by city council.

The city could plow the $1-billion in cash savings into the Downtown Relief Line, which is a plan for a loop linking the city’s east and west ends with a curved line running through the city’s core, Mr. Soknacki said.

At present, city council and the province have approved an extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway line three stops into Scarborough to replace the SRT. The city and province have also approved light rail lines on Eglinton, Finch and Sheppard avenues. Mr. Ford has said he wants to convert the Sheppard and Finch LRT lines to subways.

On Friday Amin Massoudi, a spokesman for the mayor, responded by email to requests for comment on Mr. Soknacki’s math.

“I can only comment on what has been brought before Council and approved to date. As far as we are concerned, the rest of their claims are hypothetical,” Mr. Massoudi wrote. “Regarding the Scarborough subway, according to finance staff, based on council-approved project funding plan, the city would issue slightly over $500 million in debt during the construction of the $3.5-billion Scarborough subway project. The city’s current total outstanding debt is about $3-billion.”

A smattering of reporters attended Mr. Soknacki’s news conference. For the first time since entering the race in January, Mr. Soknacki wore a tie. When Mr. Soknacki addressed the Toronto Region Board of Trade in January, at least one guest commented on his open-necked shirt.

Asked about the candidate’s decision to wear a tie, Supriya Dwivedi, Mr. Soknacki’s spokeswoman, said that he was on his way to Open Data Day, a gathering of provincial and city techies to find new ways to share government data. Open Data Day takes place today in a provincial building at 900 Bay Street.

David Soknacki blasts Rob Ford over ‘bad math’ as he warns Scarborough subways will push city’s debt to $7B
 

Walter

Hall of Fame Member
Jan 28, 2007
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Judging how development follows subway lines the City of Toronto will lose money in term of tax revenue if they don't build the subway line.


Could Soknacked be saying this because he is running against Ford for mayor?
 

BornRuff

Time Out
Nov 17, 2013
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Judging how development follows subway lines the City of Toronto will lose money in term of tax revenue if they don't build the subway line.


Could Soknacked be saying this because he is running against Ford for mayor?

Lol, could Rob Ford be making promises that we can't afford because he is running for Mayor? Critiquing your opponent's platform is supposed to be a basic part of any political campaign.

Development doesn't necessarily follow subway lines. The plan for the subway in Scarborough is mostly through mature single family residential areas, and the residents would descend on city hall with torches and pitchforks if they tries to rezone the area for dense commercial or residential development.

But, lets just pretend that isn't an issue. Ford's own administration has studied this, trying to use future increased tax revenues, as well as special development charges, to fund subway construction. The findings were that it would only cover a fraction of the cost.

So Toronto would not lose money by not building these Subways.

...until that first global warming snowstorm blocks the line. Planning for today isn't really planning....

It is not reasonable to put everything underground because we may have a few days of the year when snow gets in the way of transit. We live in Canada, that is going to happen from time to time.

This year, the problems were mostly caused by the cold, not the snow itself. The cold affected the old streetcars' pneumatic air lines that operate the breaks and doors. The newer cars that they are rolling out use hydraulics and electronic in their place and are much more reliable.
 

lone wolf

Grossly Underrated
Nov 25, 2006
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I'm all for stopping Toronto sprawl onto farmland - and I know it's not going to happen. In 20 years, they'll need better rapid transit. What's a subway going to cost in 2034?
 

BornRuff

Time Out
Nov 17, 2013
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I'm all for stopping Toronto sprawl onto farmland - and I know it's not going to happen. In 20 years, they'll need better rapid transit. What's a subway going to cost in 2034?

The question isn't if we should build subways or not. It is about where we should build subways.

Subways are not appropriate to tackle the issue of sprawl. It makes no sense to dig tunnels through areas where there is space above ground, and subway service is too slow to move people in from far flung burbs. That is what systems like Go Trains are for.
 

lone wolf

Grossly Underrated
Nov 25, 2006
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In the bush near Sudbury
GO trains can only travel on existing corridors - just like subways. Both are expensive ways to ease up on parking your car downtown - only the subway can be buried as the need arises.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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GO trains can only travel on existing corridors - just like subways. Both are expensive ways to ease up on parking your car downtown - only the subway can be buried as the need arises.
Elevated like Skytrain in Vancouver. Not a single level crossing anywhere along the line.

Winnipeg has bus trains. Odd but it's working.